Picture this: an up-and-coming artist is ready to release their next big track. After spending countless hours in their home studio perfecting the sound and creating engaging social media content, they’re finally set to drop it. Ideally, they hope the track will go viral, gaining millions of streams and becoming an instant hit. But in reality, things rarely unfold that way—even for established artists.

After dropping the track at midnight on Friday, they saw a quick surge in streams and engagement over the weekend, mostly driven by early excitement on social media. However, as the initial buzz faded, many listeners moved on to other songs. Eventually, streaming numbers stabilized, leaving behind a core group of dedicated fans who truly connected with the track. That’s when the track found its true market fit.

In business, Product-Market Fit refers to the moment when a product satisfies a strong market demand. For artists, this is when their music resonates deeply with their audience, creating lasting engagement and generating momentum beyond an initial release. PMF in music is about understanding how well an artistic output meets the needs and preferences of its audience, which can be identified through data and insights.

To take a real-life example, British artist RAYE released her track “Genesis” on June 7, following a snippet on social media and a performance on SNL. Within a week, it had 2.3M Spotify streams. However, to truly measure the market fit of “Genesis,” it’s essential to look beyond the initial spike and consider how the track sustains engagement over time. By analyzing metrics such as the average stream change over the last 28 days, which sits at 34.4k, and dividing it by her 27.38M Spotify monthly listeners, we get a market fit percentage of about 0.125%. This analysis, conducted five months after its release, indicates how well the track holds listeners' attention beyond its initial debut.

These numbers here can vary a lot between artists, depending on where they are in their careers and their past releases. What seems like a good fit for one artist is average for another. However, it’s recommended that artists and their teams look at the market fit for each release and use it as a benchmark. They can then compare it with their earlier tracks to understand how well it’s doing and whether it fits the market.

A high initial listener percentage followed by a slower decline over time can indicate a strong market fit, as those who continue streaming after the initial buzz likely form part of a core audience that deeply connects with the track's artistic depth. However, what’s often overlooked about product-market fit are the surprising commonalities among those who stick around. The challenge is that many artists don’t take the time to analyze these patterns or identify where the momentum slows. But when they do, they gain a clearer picture of their true target audience.

Defining the Target Audience

After a few months, the aforementioned indie artist has released several tracks, played some gigs, and accrued enough data to understand who their fans will likely be. By digging into the numbers on platforms like Chartmetric, some clear patterns emerge: most fans are based in London and Berlin, include both men and women, and often have an interest in photography brands like Kodak and Polaroid. This helps build a profile of the average fan—a “John or Jane Doe.” For example, they might now assume, “My fan is probably a Gen Z, white, English-speaking, living in London with a strong interest in photography."

Investing heavily in marketing before an artist finds their target audience can be a major misstep. Without product-market fit, both labels and artists risk throwing away millions on expensive guesswork, like using the wrong hashtags or broad paid ads that try to reach everyone rather than honing in on the specific group that will likely connect with the music.

Engaging with the Fanbase

With a clear understanding of their target audience, the next challenge is to grow and sustain it by engaging across platforms and keeping fans connected to their music and artistry. To further assess product-market fit, they should consider key questions like, “Which moods resonate most with playlist listeners?” or, “How are my tracks getting playlisted and performing in those playlists?”

For example, the second part of RAYE’s “Genesis” features haunting lyrics such as “I see a sad little sinner in the mirror” and “The devil works hard, like my liver,” which align with the dark, reflective mood tagged in user-generated playlists. Descriptors like “Blue,” “Bitter,” “Empowered,” “Creepy,” and “Sexy” are commonly associated with this part of the song according to Chartmetric mood tags, indicating how well it connects with listeners who curate playlists around these emotions. 

Raye could use this insight to create content that amplifies the themes in “Genesis.” She can highlight the track's intense moments by creating TikTok videos with dark, villainous aesthetics and sharing behind-the-scenes footage from the music video. Curating playlists that include “Genesis” alongside similarly themed songs can further strengthen her bond with fans. This approach ties directly to market fit by boosting retention among her core audience, ensuring the track’s lasting appeal through targeted, resonant content.

Targeting Subcultures for Growth Opportunities

More often than not, an artist's audience often comes from a specific subculture or niche, either one they’ve created or one that already exists in the music world. These can range from well-known subcultures like “K-pop” and “Bro-Country” to more niche groups, such as “R&B artists who make protest music" or “folk artists who make astrology-inspired music.”

Consider three UK-based artists: Jam City, Nabihah Iqbal, and Miso Extra. They create pop-inspired music with electronic and cosmic elements, forming part of the “UK electro-pop artists” subculture. Suppose they draw inspiration from these artists and aims to target this subculture to convert new fans and strengthen the connection with her existing ones. In that case, our artist might target fans who have already engaged with Jam City's merchandise, attended Iqbal's shows, or joined Miso Extra's WhatsApp channel. But how can they locate these audiences?

By tapping into the existing brand affinity, this artist can tailor their music and marketing to better connect with potential fans in the same niche. While aiming for high-profile opportunities like Spotify features or Coachella performances would be ideal, there are more practical and attainable ways to connect with these audiences. For example, these fans are engaged with music brands, so the fourth artist could focus on creating authentic music content (acoustic releases, live sing-alongs on Instagram, exclusive releases on SoundCloud, etc.). This aligns with the mentioned artists’ social media, who post musical content featuring instruments, studio sessions, and the tools they use, helping them build a more personal connection with their audience.

Choosing a niche goes beyond just targeting potential audiences—it demands full immersion in the scene. Artists need to know similar musicians, key venues, labels, and key people. Like Jam City and Miso Extra at London’s XOYO, performing at important venues, collaborating with peers and mentors, and networking locally and online are essential steps.

Charting the Music Landscape

As artists grow, they need to map their fit in the broader music landscape. At this stage, understanding an artist's position goes beyond surface-level metrics like social media engagement or their audience’s location. It’s a point where artists have developed a cohesive brand identity that allows them to understand how their music is experienced and leverage that to strategically maintain and grow their presence beyond streaming numbers or trends. 

What narrative are they crafting through their visuals, sound, and online presence? Is “Pop Crave” talking about them? Are they aiming to tour small, intimate venues or headline massive stadiums? Are they focused on commercial success or more driven by exploring new sounds and pushing creative boundaries? To cut through the chaos of today’s music industry, it helps to map out where their music stands across different layers of consumption and culture.

The horizontal axis represents the scale of the audience, showing whether the music appeals to a broad or niche group. The vertical axis captures the context of consumption, distinguishing between music shared and discussed among the mainstream and music that is more enjoyed behind the scenes. 

In the top-right corner, Mainstream includes current music trends and popular artists that generate public conversation, from the Billboard Hot 100 to viral tracks. In the lower right, Intimate Mass features classic albums and songs that offer familiar comfort and nostalgia, featuring legendary artists and albums that are cult classics. 

The top left, Social Niche, includes music enjoyed by trendsetting subcultures where fans immerse themselves in every detail. The bottom left, Hidden Gems, highlights avant-garde music and artists enjoyed privately, rarely reaching the mainstream. These innovators push boundaries yet stay under the radar, where artistic expression precedes commercial success.

Music and artists often shift between categories over time and can occupy multiple spaces simultaneously. The top-right, mainstream tracks usually fall to the bottom-right over time. In contrast, up-and-coming artists can gain recognition within a specific subculture, gradually expanding their reach to the mainstream. For instance, Chappell Roan’s rise wasn’t instant, much like Charli XCX, whose album, brat, reflects years of artistic evolution, determination, and clear fit into the “hyper-pop” subculture. 

A Dynamic Journey

Finding an artist's product-market fit isn’t a one-time achievement—it’s a dynamic journey. Before entering the music industry, many artists have a clear idea of who they want to be—whether it's their sound, the genre they fit into, or the visuals that complement their stage persona. 

But in reality, it’s about understanding what makes artists resonate with listeners and building on that to sustain long-term success. It’s not just about having a vision but continually reassessing where they stand in the ever-evolving music landscape. Chappell Roan started with an indie-pop singer-songwriter style but reinvented herself with a bold, queer, and theatrical persona after being dropped by her label, embracing her true identity with tracks like “Pink Pony Club” and her album The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess​.

Releasing music is only the beginning. What follows is analyzing data, identifying and engaging with the right audience, and finding subcultures that align with their sound. This constant refinement—from track level to the overall artist brand—helps them understand how audiences respond and where they truly belong.

Graphics by Sarah Kloboves and Jubran Haddad; Cover image by Crasianne Tirado