The yearly awaited musical night is right around the corner. The 68th Grammys will take place on February 1st to define the biggest musical moments of 2025, covering best songs, albums, and performances across genres. Over the years, the recording academy’s decisions have been subject to a lot of criticism. From fans and industry insiders to A-list artists themselves, critics have pointed to high-profile snubs, bias, and a lack of transparency. As a result, Grammy night rarely ends without heated discussion—and this year’s nominations are no exception. From iconic returns with Justin Bieber's SWAG and Lady Gaga’s Abracadabra, to new fast-rising names like KATSEYE and Addison Rae, the contenders span over a diverse range of tastes.
Even though trying to predict the Grammy winners is like trying to predict the impossible, Chartmetric data can be used to examine who is best positioned to win across the night’s key categories: Song of the Year, Album of the Year, and Best Group/Duo performance.
Album Of The Year
Spotify Popularity index (0-100) for GRAMMY nominees in this category ()
- “GNX” - Kendrick Lamar: 79
- “SWAG” - Justin Bieber: 64
- “Man’s Best Friend” - Sabrina Carpenter: 94
- “CHROMAKOPIA” - Tyler The Creator: 54
- “MUTT” - Leon Thomas: 65
- “ Let God Sort Em Out” - Clipse, Pusha T, Malice: 43
- “MAYHEM” - Lady Gaga: 86
- “DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS” - Bad Bunny: 100
While this year’s Album of the Year field is stacked with household names, none of the nominees have previously taken home the award. That means any outcome will be historic. Among the contenders, Bad Bunny’s DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS stands out as the clearest frontrunner. The album achieved monumental commercial success while earning widespread critical acclaim for its musical excellence and cultural impact, marking a defining moment in Latin music’s history. In her Pitchfork review, Tatiana Lee Rodriguez wrote, “Bad Bunny brought perreo to the global mainstage years ago; with DeBí TiRAR MáS FOToS, he encourages future stars of Latin music to reclaim its roots.” The data reinforces that narrative. Since its January release, the album has maintained a perfect 100 on Spotify’s popularity index for more than half of the year. Even during brief dips, it never fell below 92, an unmatched level of sustained momentum among this year’s nominees.
Song Of The Year
Chartmetric track score (current)
*Chartmetric Track Score is a proprietary calculation that is a combination of various other platform metrics
- “APT.” — ROSÉ and Bruno Mars: 99.3
- “Golden” — EJAE, Audrey Nuna, and REI AMI 99.7
- “Luther” — Kendrick Lamar with SZA 98.9
- “Abracadabra” — Lady Gaga 98.4
- “Anxiety” — Doechii 93.9
- “DtMF” — Bad Bunny 99.1
- “Manchild” — Sabina Carpenter 98.9
- “WILDFLOWER” — Billie Eilish 98.9
With smash hits spanning multiple genres, predicting the Song of the Year winner feels nearly impossible. That said, the field narrows considerably when evaluated through popularity, critical reception, and the Academy’s previous voting patterns. By those measures, these tracks can be slimed down as the top contenders: APT. by ROSÉ and Bruno Mars, Luther by Kendrick Lamar featuring SZA, and Abracadabra by Lady Gaga.
APT. leads decisively on the data-wise. The track has maintained the most consistent CM track score of the three, remaining above 99.2 throughout the past year. Streaming performance also gives it an edge: APT. has 2.27 billion Spotify streams to date, compared to 1.36 billion for Luther and 701.22 million for Abracadabra. Beyond the numbers, APT. stands out for its cultural reach which successfully bridges K-pop with the Western mainstream through its cross-genre production and global appeal. Therefore, APT. has a great chance of taking the Song Of The Year award home. Honorable mentions go to DtMF by Bad Bunny and Golden by EJAE, Audrey Nuna, and REI AMI, both strong contenders, though their chances appear stronger in other categories
Best Pop Duo/ Group Performance
Charmetric Track Rank (current)
*Chartmetric track rank is determined by comparing its track score to that of all other tracks.
- “Golden” - From KPop Demon Hunters HUNTR/X: EJAE, Audrey Nuna, REI AMI 2
- “Gabriela” - KATSEYE 23
- “APT”- ROSÉ, Bruno Mars 26
- “30 For 30” - SZA Featuring Kendrick Lamar 33.2k
- “Defying Gravity” - Cynthia Erivo & Ariana Grande 343.1k
The nominees for Best Pop Duo/Group Performance reflect some of 2025’s most defining pop culture moments, with an emphasis on girl groups. This year also marks a historic first: it is the first time any girl group has been nominated in the category since its introduction in 2012 with Gabriela by global pop group KATSEYE and Golden by HUNTR/X from K-Pop Demon Hunters. These tracks appear as the two clear frontrunners as well.
Since the film’s release, Golden has maintained a No. 1 position on CM’s track rank for much of the year, only slipping to No. 2 in December 2025. Gabriela, meanwhile, debuted at No. 2 before falling to No. 23.
Culturally, both tracks made a significant impact on TikTok: Gabriela had nearly 850,000 user-generated videos, while Golden surpassed that figure with 1.97 million.
Beyond performance metrics, both acts carry symbolic weight. KATSEYE is set to make history as the first girl group to perform at the Grammys since Destiny’s Child in 2002, while HUNTR/X represents a rare phenomenon: a fictional group achieving chart dominance on par with real-world pop acts. While the race remains competitive, Golden’s chart performance and outsized cultural footprint give it a measurable edge, making it the most likely winner in this category.
While the Grammys will always leave room for debate, the data helps clarify which nominees have built the strongest cases over the past year. As these categories show, sustained momentum, cultural impact, and cross-platform performance often point to who the Academy is most likely to reward
